Predicting rented cars based on different weather conditions

In [1]:
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
In [2]:
df_hour = pd.read_csv('hour.csv')
In [3]:
df_day = pd.read_csv('days.csv')
In [4]:
df_hour
Out[4]:
instant dteday season yr mnth hr holiday weekday workingday weathersit temp atemp hum windspeed casual registered cnt
0 1 2011-01-01 1 0 1 0 0 6 0 1 0.24 0.2879 0.81 0.0000 3 13 16
1 2 2011-01-01 1 0 1 1 0 6 0 1 0.22 0.2727 0.80 0.0000 8 32 40
2 3 2011-01-01 1 0 1 2 0 6 0 1 0.22 0.2727 0.80 0.0000 5 27 32
3 4 2011-01-01 1 0 1 3 0 6 0 1 0.24 0.2879 0.75 0.0000 3 10 13
4 5 2011-01-01 1 0 1 4 0 6 0 1 0.24 0.2879 0.75 0.0000 0 1 1
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
17374 17375 2012-12-31 1 1 12 19 0 1 1 2 0.26 0.2576 0.60 0.1642 11 108 119
17375 17376 2012-12-31 1 1 12 20 0 1 1 2 0.26 0.2576 0.60 0.1642 8 81 89
17376 17377 2012-12-31 1 1 12 21 0 1 1 1 0.26 0.2576 0.60 0.1642 7 83 90
17377 17378 2012-12-31 1 1 12 22 0 1 1 1 0.26 0.2727 0.56 0.1343 13 48 61
17378 17379 2012-12-31 1 1 12 23 0 1 1 1 0.26 0.2727 0.65 0.1343 12 37 49

17379 rows × 17 columns

In [20]:
df_day
Out[20]:
instant dteday season yr mnth holiday weekday workingday weathersit temp atemp hum windspeed casual registered cnt
0 1 2011-01-01 1 0 1 0 6 0 2 0.344167 0.363625 0.805833 0.160446 331 654 985
1 2 2011-01-02 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0.363478 0.353739 0.696087 0.248539 131 670 801
2 3 2011-01-03 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0.196364 0.189405 0.437273 0.248309 120 1229 1349
3 4 2011-01-04 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0.200000 0.212122 0.590435 0.160296 108 1454 1562
4 5 2011-01-05 1 0 1 0 3 1 1 0.226957 0.229270 0.436957 0.186900 82 1518 1600
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
726 727 2012-12-27 1 1 12 0 4 1 2 0.254167 0.226642 0.652917 0.350133 247 1867 2114
727 728 2012-12-28 1 1 12 0 5 1 2 0.253333 0.255046 0.590000 0.155471 644 2451 3095
728 729 2012-12-29 1 1 12 0 6 0 2 0.253333 0.242400 0.752917 0.124383 159 1182 1341
729 730 2012-12-30 1 1 12 0 0 0 1 0.255833 0.231700 0.483333 0.350754 364 1432 1796
730 731 2012-12-31 1 1 12 0 1 1 2 0.215833 0.223487 0.577500 0.154846 439 2290 2729

731 rows × 16 columns

In [5]:
df_hour.isnull().sum()
Out[5]:
instant       0
dteday        0
season        0
yr            0
mnth          0
hr            0
holiday       0
weekday       0
workingday    0
weathersit    0
temp          0
atemp         0
hum           0
windspeed     0
casual        0
registered    0
cnt           0
dtype: int64
In [6]:
df_hour.dtypes
Out[6]:
instant         int64
dteday         object
season          int64
yr              int64
mnth            int64
hr              int64
holiday         int64
weekday         int64
workingday      int64
weathersit      int64
temp          float64
atemp         float64
hum           float64
windspeed     float64
casual          int64
registered      int64
cnt             int64
dtype: object

Starting visualization on hour dataset

In [7]:
sns.set_style("white")
sns.set(rc={'figure.figsize':(11.7,8.27)})
sns.distplot(df_hour['cnt'], bins=30)
plt.show()

Let's saperate the dataset on sesaonal basis

In [8]:
df_spring = df_hour[(df_hour['season']==1)]
df_summer = df_hour[(df_hour['season']==2)]
df_fall = df_hour[(df_hour['season']==3)]
df_winter = df_hour[(df_hour['season']==4)]

Spring data visualization

In [9]:
sns.set_style("white")
sns.set(rc={'figure.figsize':(11.7,8.27)})
sns.distplot(df_spring['cnt'], bins=30)
plt.show()
In [28]:
axes = pd.plotting.scatter_matrix(df_hour, figsize=(23,23))
for ax in axes.flatten():
    ax.set_xlabel(ax.get_xlabel(), rotation=90)
    ax.set_ylabel(ax.get_ylabel(), rotation=0);
In [30]:
sns.scatterplot(data=df_spring, x='temp', y='cnt');
In [5]:
df_hour.columns
Out[5]:
Index(['instant', 'dteday', 'season', 'yr', 'mnth', 'hr', 'holiday', 'weekday',
       'workingday', 'weathersit', 'temp', 'atemp', 'hum', 'windspeed',
       'casual', 'registered', 'cnt'],
      dtype='object')
In [4]:
sns.set()
In [12]:
sns.relplot(x = 'temp',y='cnt',data=df_hour)
Out[12]:
<seaborn.axisgrid.FacetGrid at 0x1df5c6e0c48>
In [19]:
sns.relplot(x="temp", y="cnt",
             
            facet_kws=dict(sharex=False),
            kind="line", legend="full", data=df_hour);

Count increases as the temperature increase

In [23]:
sns.relplot(x="windspeed", y="cnt", 
            kind="line", data=df_hour);

The above graph shows the effect of windspeed on the number of rental bikes

In [31]:
sns.catplot(x="weekday", y="cnt",
            kind="swarm", data=df_hour);

so there's almost no difference when the vehicle being rented. Almost all six days are same

In [33]:
sns.catplot(x="holiday", y="cnt",kind="swarm", data=df_hour);

Normal day renting is greater than on holidays.

In [36]:
sns.pairplot(data=df_hour,hue = 'season')

C:\Users\hp\Anaconda3\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\nonparametric\kde.py:487: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide
  binned = fast_linbin(X, a, b, gridsize) / (delta * nobs)
C:\Users\hp\Anaconda3\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\nonparametric\kdetools.py:34: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars
  FAC1 = 2*(np.pi*bw/RANGE)**2
Out[36]:
<seaborn.axisgrid.PairGrid at 0x1df5e6e1948>

Bar ploting different plots

In [38]:
plt.bar(df_hour['season'],df_hour['cnt'])
Out[38]:
<BarContainer object of 17379 artists>

The windspeed of different seasons and their effect on renting.

In [54]:
sns.lineplot(x="windspeed", y="cnt",
             hue="season", 
             data=df_hour)
Out[54]:
<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x1df26ef64c8>

Now checking effect of temperature and renting on season basis

In [53]:
sns.lineplot(x="temp", y="cnt",
             hue="season", 
             data=df_hour)
Out[53]:
<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x1df26d8abc8>
In [55]:
sns.lineplot(x="temp", y="cnt",
             hue="holiday", 
             data=df_hour)
Out[55]:
<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x1df26e96f88>

Now let's draw the correlation heatmap

In [10]:
sns.set_style("ticks")
corr = df_hour.corr()
mask = np.zeros_like(corr, dtype=np.bool)
mask[np.triu_indices_from(mask)] = True

f, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11, 9))
cmap = sns.diverging_palette(220, 10, as_cmap=True)
sns.heatmap(data=corr,  cbar=True,mask=mask,fmt='.1f', annot=True, annot_kws={'size':15},cmap=cmap, center=0,
            square=True, linewidths=.5)
#fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(19, 8))
ax.set_xticklabels(
    ax.get_xticklabels(),
    rotation=70,
    horizontalalignment='right'
);
b, t = plt.ylim() # discover the values for bottom and top
b += 0.5 # Add 0.5 to the bottom
t -= 0.5 # Subtract 0.5 from the top
plt.ylim(b, t) # update the ylim(bottom, top) values
Out[10]:
(16.0, 0.0)

Now some weather situations are given below and then we plot the effect of weather situation along with temperature and count

  1. Clear, Few Clouds or Partly cloud
  2. Misty along with clouds or broken clouds or few clouds
  3. Light Snow, Light Rain, Thunderstorm with scattered clouds, Light rain and some scattered clouds
  4. Heay Rain alongwith ice pallets and thunderstorm with mist or snow with fog
In [12]:
sns.lineplot(x="temp", y="cnt",
             hue="weathersit", 
             data=df_hour)
Out[12]:
<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x1d1250876c8>

There is a significant increase in temperature range between 0.6 to 1 when weather situation is 2 or 3

Now Let's do same as above but for holiday and weather situation

In [14]:
sns.catplot(x="holiday", y="cnt",
             hue="weathersit", 
             data=df_hour)
Out[14]:
<seaborn.axisgrid.FacetGrid at 0x1d125459288>

1 representing day is neither weekend nor holiday else 0

Now Let's apply some machine learning.

In [15]:
df_hour.columns
Out[15]:
Index(['instant', 'dteday', 'season', 'yr', 'mnth', 'hr', 'holiday', 'weekday',
       'workingday', 'weathersit', 'temp', 'atemp', 'hum', 'windspeed',
       'casual', 'registered', 'cnt'],
      dtype='object')
In [4]:
x = np.array(df_hour[[ 'season', 'mnth', 'hr', 'weekday',
       'workingday', 'weathersit', 'temp', 'hum', 'windspeed']])
y = np.array(df_hour['cnt'])
In [5]:
x = np.c_[np.ones(x.shape[0]),x]
In [6]:
y = np.reshape(y,(17379,1))
In [6]:
x.shape
Out[6]:
(17379, 10)
In [7]:
y.shape
Out[7]:
(17379, 1)
In [10]:
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
In [11]:
x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test=train_test_split(x,y,test_size=0.3)
In [22]:
thetas= np.array(np.zeros((x_train.shape[1],1)),dtype=float)
thetas.shape
Out[22]:
(10, 1)
In [12]:
def cost(x_train,y_train,thetas):
    m = y_train.size
    h_x = x_train.dot(thetas)
    J = (1/(2*m)* (np.sum(h_x-y_train)**2)) 
    return J
In [22]:
def gradient(x_train,y_train,alpha,n_epoch):
    m = y_train.size
    J = list()
    prev = np.inf
    cost_val = np.inf
    thetas= np.array(np.zeros((x_train.shape[1],1)),dtype=float)
    for i in range(n_epoch):
        cost_val = cost(x_train,y_train,thetas)
        
        thetas = thetas - (alpha * ((1/(m))  * (( (x_train.dot(thetas)) - y_train).T).dot(x_train)).T)
        J.append(cost_val)
        #print("thetas are ",thetas)
        print("cost is ", cost_val)
    return thetas, J
In [34]:
#16502.930873331276
n_epoch = 5000
#alpha = 0.008 cost is  103.43991829124796
alpha = 0.008
thetas, J = gradient(x_train,y_train,alpha,n_epoch)

cost is  214503939.7110152
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In [28]:
#thetas,J=gradient(x_train,y_train,0.00008,2000)
thetas,J=gradient(x_train,y_train,0.008,5000)
plt.figure(dpi=300)
plt.plot(J)
plt.xlabel("Epocs")
plt.ylabel("Loss")
plt.title("Epochs versus Loss")

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Out[28]:
Text(0.5, 1.0, 'Epochs versus Loss')

Error check for training examples along with library implementation

In [35]:
def MAE(predictions, y_train):
    return sum(abs(predictions - y_train)) / y_train.shape[0]
    #return np.sqrt(np.mean((predictions-y_test)**2))
In [36]:
predictions = x_train.dot(thetas)
MAE(predictions,y_train)
Out[36]:
array([108.82737417])
In [37]:
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
lr = LinearRegression()
lr.fit(x_train,y_train)
pred = lr.predict(x_train)
#mae = np.sqrt(np.mean((pred-y_test)**2))
mae =sum(abs(pred - y_train)) / y_train.shape[0]
mae
Out[37]:
array([107.75768537])

Error check for testing samples along with library implementation

In [38]:
def MAE(predictions, y_test):
    return sum(abs(predictions - y_test)) / y_test.shape[0]
    #return np.sqrt(np.mean((predictions-y_test)**2))
In [39]:
predictions = x_test.dot(thetas)
MAE(predictions,y_test)
Out[39]:
array([110.65707899])
In [41]:
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
lr = LinearRegression()
lr.fit(x_train,y_train)
pred = lr.predict(x_test)
#mae = np.sqrt(np.mean((pred-y_test)**2))
mae =sum(abs(pred - y_test)) / y_test.shape[0]
mae
Out[41]:
array([109.79009188])

If u want to check the RMSE for training and testing code is below do whatever you want to do

In [26]:
def Rmse(predictions, y_test):
    #return sum(abs(predictions - y_test)) / y_test.shape[0]
    return np.sqrt(np.mean((predictions-y_test)**2))
In [31]:
predictions = x_test.dot(thetas)
Rmse(predictions,y_test)
Out[31]:
array([121.32429112])

Thanks

The same thing goes for our day dataset. So we can apply same technique to explore the hidden patterns and train our model for performing predictions

In [ ]: